McCain’s ONLY Path to Victory
T.J. Connolly
Although all the cards, and for that matter, and more importantly, the pledged delegates are stacked against her, I still find it hard to count Sen. Hillary Clinton out for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Especially when you look to her expected victories yet to come in states like Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Puerto Rico; and possibly more states. I expect that Sen. Clinton will close to within 100 pledged delegates or less of Sen. Barak Obama’s current 150+ delegate lead. Yet, Sen. Obama, over the next three months, will likely overtake her in pledged Super Delegates. Neither will have the necessary 2025 delegates needed to win the Democratic Nomination when the Primary season comes to a close on June 3rd. But as long as a Clinton is standing, you should never count them out.
That being said, all odds currently favor Sen. Barak Obama to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination. In my lifetime, next to former President Ronald Regan, I’ve never encountered a politician on any level who could speak so directly and so passionately to an individual the way that Sen. Obama has so adeptly exhibited. While Sen. McCain enjoys a statistical dead-heat with Sen. Obama today, following their August Democratic National Convention in Denver, watch for Sen. Obama, after winning the Nomination and after bringing millions upon millions of young, disaffected new voters into the Primary process, to open up a 7 – 10 point lead on Republican Presidential Nominee Sen. John McCain, and never look back…UNLESS…
As he takes the podium in Minneapolis to accept his Party’s nomination for President of the United States, Sen. John McCain utters the following statement:
“For over 200 years, Presidents who have wanted to bring real change, real reform to Washington, have all to often had one eye fixed on change, and one eye fixed on how that change will affect their re-election campaign in the years ahead. My friends, I’ve been willing to give my life for my Country in war, and I will not be encumbered as your President with the worries or necessary promises one must make in their desire to win re-election.
Let me give you some straight talk my friends. I proudly and with a full heart humbly accept your nomination as your President. But I accept it with the commitment that I will proudly, and honorably serve but one term. I will not stand for re-election in 2012. I will dedicate my one term to real reform. A term dedicated to bringing permanent change to Washington. It will be dedicated to winning the War on Terrorism and keeping our Homeland safe. Politics will end with the McCain Administration when the last vote is counted in November of 2008. My Vice President and I will focus solely on our work for you for the next four years. No promises to big donors. No deals to ensure our re-election. But rather real change for you. Reform of our broken bureaucracy for you. I make this pledge not for me…but for you. For America. God Bless you. And God bless America,”
If Sen. McCain utters the above comments, he wins 53% to 47%. If not, it’s President Obama 54% to 46%. Possibly even a bigger win for President Obama.
It all rests on what Sen. McCain wants more. To win and change America, or run the regular divide and conquer Republican campaign.
One that no Republican can win in 2008.
